BHARGAV KUMAR
How the world looked before it was struck by the COVID-19 Virus?
With the mere passage of a few months the primeval traces of the world that looks today, differs on all points. Where today's scene resembles from United states suffering vehemently in the stroke of a deadly virus and China's two months economic shutdown has brought its economy from 5.7% to a mere 1.3% in terms of growth rate. The story of the world doesn't look same. Before the introduction of this contagious virus the world economy and its priority of particular Nations at individualistic level was highly floating on the verge of vehement competition. China's One Belt One Road (OBOR) or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as global development strategy including infrastructural development and investment in nearly seventy countries were one of the arsenals at International levels. Such tendencies and actions was witnessed in the US withdrawal from the TPP the prolonged US-China trade war, Trumpian disregard of Climate Change crisis and Brexit. The combating attempt like the "Quad" in the Indo-Pacific, a potential security arrangement among the four large democracies Australia, India, Japan and the US. All these seem to be destroyed at one go in the past four months.
Entry of Covid-19 and the World
Then came COVIS-19 a game changer on all the primeval set ups as the initial cases were witnessed in Wuhan, a manufacturing hub in China. In the globalized world, more than 210 nations are now affected in varying degrees of this contagious and unresolved virus. The openness of the economies of the world mostly looks like, based on three variables namely tourism, trade and investment in this period of globalization. With the ignorance of W.H.O and the failure to associate to the prerequisite threat and potential of the contagious disease, It spread to Italy which is the largest Cooperative trade partner but ever since the nation became BRI member in 2019 and the biggest destination for Chinese FDI. And that investment comes down to Corona failure in Italy and it spread there like the aftermath. Likewise, Iran's exposure to China with high Chinese investment and labor flow to Iran lead to produce situation of threat of virus in Iran too. The high export exposure to South Korea, Spain and finally the US, the novel Nation drastically affected by the virus that witnessed its initiative and initial cases in Wuhan becomes its largest sufferers at present. With over one and half million cases of covid-19 and more than 40,000 and 80,000 deaths, no fatigue or epidemic has so harshly dominated and thrashed these developed nations. India Malaysia Russia United Kingdom on the other hand has continuous increase in the curve of areas of virus affected population.
Consequences the World is Facing
With the introduction to the new word in Socio Political domain "Lockdown" the whole world continues to fight against this contagious disease. Though, the infection is caused by physical proximity of humans of affected countries. Initially, that has turned to be the internal consequences of all 210 Nations the countries have taken stringent action that implies for the closer of all activities in public domain. The economy has never become so fragile and trenched down the curve. There has been massive fallout of industrial production. Joblessness and economic crisis of the world has made it biggest casualty world has ever faced in monetary field. Globalization goals and figures have been severely affected. The trade and Commerce has been crashed and that has led to major change in regional connectivity to the micro and macro level industries are all shutdown, trade investment has come to zero and more obvious is the human capital movement has gone deep down. Global supply chain have demolished as there is no productivity, wages problems, joblessness have brought the problem of poverty and human sustainability of life globally. A serious economic recession is looking to the world economies in future. But apart from these, the growing number of mortality rate due to the virus and patients and reducing length of chain of health sector and increasing pressure on it has probably struck the whole world. The situation is a global and international one and seems the two dug sides of well and Valley will lead to death anyhow.
How the Future World looks like
Covid-19 though continues to spread its trail of death; it is only natural to expect the world to never be the same again when the virus eventually runs out of the steam. Big and small economies will face a tough time in process of collecting the pieces of all over broken economy and that would be a tough and arduous task as in the case of 2008- 09 economic recession. There will be another exercise of alignment or even buyouts were the weak look to the strong for survival. The UN significance is played balancing this pandemic yet again questions it's testimony since its recreation after World War II. As it held its meeting so henceforth and was much late to declare the snore of virus as a pandemic when the whole world was already drowned in the drain of contagious virus. Institutions like SAARC came up to stand much more on knees than floor felt body but the outcome is not yet so productive as India led the meet and the nations assured of mutual help, all the SAARC Nations continue to fight their own race. European Union, the most progressive post National regional arrangement is standing clueless when the virus has already spread like Wildfire in Europe.
Not just these are the indicators of higher but the analysis of futuristic world that looks remain standing as:-
Economic world arena
Taking the major reference of the 2008-09 economic depression, it can be e concluded that the economic world would yet again emerge of another layer quality. The way covid-19 has trenched the world economy may this time show its severe ways to revive than 2008-09 depression. While the former was a striving Economic world that fought to revive out of depression with more production, exchange value, imports and exports. But the latter is the situation of the already stopped and stable economic world order that we ought to see after covid-19 outbreak will be of another kind. The world Economies are almost more than stable and locked down. There is almost no or very less exports and imports. Globalization goals being severely affected, that is gradually leading the Global value chain (GVC) is breaking to the morsels. The state capitalist society has started continuing to pursue exchange value as the guiding light of the economy. Countries like UK, Spain, Denmark and India where the assistance of state cooperative society is clearly visible. This can be positive sign for fighting against COVID epidemic but how will it conclude in its farsighted form is yet to be seen. After following the covid-19 stroke, even if the world is able to control this epidemic, its contagious nature will follow up with stricter immigration rules prevailing all across the world. A nation like India that has boasted of providing skilled human capital to the developed World may be a looser then it will it be a zenith breach on the skilled Indian laborers who are highest in the world.
Social World Arena
Covid-19 has although brought the world together. The recent meetings conducted amidst world organizations and nationwide groups like G20, G7, SAARC, UNSC, UNGC, EU etc. have generated a light of hope in the pandemic and recession. The Neolithic concerns of value ownership and centralized policies of the government have embraced state socialism and barbarism at the same time. The 80,000 deaths reported in USA and about 1.5 million cases in is the result of barbarian policy of the US government in which economic relevance dominated the social life concerns of its citizens. While the countries like Japan, India, Britain, Brazil, Canada and Spain etc. took to the stringent policy of state socialism and that is guided by the security of life of the citizens as first step and lockdown is looked as that essence. While India has some voids in the implementation process, as poverty takes over the scenario. Though, India has the world's largest number of labor class, the situation was unavoidable but the effect could have met some lines. The post COVID-19 will be highly dominated by the nationalist and vehement approach of state-centered decisions, the important concern in all the countries of the world shouldn't be downtrodden to the factors of human rights of the citizens but for their safety. Balanced and neutral step could be better way to go for the Nations around the world. As the Corona effect will reduce the continent wide movement and mobile activities from one Nation to other will also show because a new age racism which is ultimately bound to happen as its linkage to the severely affected Nations and their citizens.
The realm of Political domain
While mutual aid has brought many countries together in this epidemic, the mutual responsibilities have clearly became a positive factor in terms of narrowing the political gap amongst the world community. The organizations which have been born for political considerations and cooperation like WHO (World Health Organization) is highly on radar of the most affected nations of the world like US, UK and France. On one side USA has stopped funding the WHO, China is not left out from this spike. The actions of the world community on WHO and China is the matter of future which is to be realized. But the relationships and diplomatic bonds towards China and the organization WHO will never be same in all aspects and spirits. International Organizations such as G20, G7, United Nations, European Union have come up together but how relevant would it work in post COVID period is a yet to watch trailer.
Hopes and Fears
These visions are extreme scenarios caricatures and likely to bleed into one another. What is hopefully clear is that, all these scenarios leave some grounds for fear but also some for hope. Covid-19 has highlighted some serious deficiencies and some bonds in our existing world order and World system. Though, it has brought radical change in the world because it has affected the whole world profoundly. The world is facing humanity's biggest crisis since World I and World War II; almost every country has been affected by the devastating Corona virus disease.
Undoubtedly, the coronavirus has put the world economy at a major risk; it has ravaged the social foundations of exchange value of resources, interactions severe and stringent policies of the Government and the state. The fear of the fulcrums of this virus outbreak can be prodigiously vehement as an outcome of hyper globalization. However, the world is going to face recession, joblessness, more severe and stringent rules of the state and international laws that may exceed the World War 1 and World War 2 combined. At the same time, the world can be hopeful towards the Co-operative policies, balanced productivity and economic and social exchange values in terms of cultural and monitory aspect while the world order would definitely be based on the rudiment lines of a new fresh start for both the socio-economic, diplomatic and cultural bindings and a hope for the better world could be more reliable as soon as this epidemic ends.
Sources: - The Business Times, The Hindu, New York Times
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